They have announced a surprise European diplomatic shuttle to solve the crisis in east Ukraine, with the pair due in Kiev on Thursday and Moscow on Friday, in an attempt to end the violence which has cost more than 5,000 lives.
“Together with Angela Merkel we have decided to take a new initiative,” Hollande told a news conference. “We will make a new proposal to solve the conflict which will be based on Ukraine’s territorial integrity.” It will be Merkel’s first trip to Russia since the outbreak of violence in eastern Ukraine began.
The dramatic intensification of diplomatic efforts came as the US secretary of state, John Kerry, arrived in Kiev to meet the Ukrainian president, Petro Poroshenko, and other top officials. In recent days, a number of US officials have signalled that Washington may be open to providing Ukraine with direct military aid.
President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, confirmed that Hollande and Merkel would meet with Putin on Friday, and said the three leaders would discuss ways to end the “civil war” in Ukraine – a continuation of the Kremlin’s line that it is not a party to the conflict. Russia has repeatedly made blanket denials of any involvement in the conflict, despite evidence of logistical and military support to the rebels.
A diplomatic source in Kiev said a summit on east Ukraine planned for last month in Kazakhstan and due to involve Merkel, Hollande, Putin and Poroshenko, was cancelled mainly because the German chancellor said she would not attend unless there was a clear sign that progress could be made.
Friday’s joint mission may mean she now feels there is a deal acceptable to all sides to be made, or may be a last-ditch attempt to force Putin to negotiations before a US arming of Ukraine leads to further escalation.
Russian foreign ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich said on Thursday that Russia was extremely concerned by deliberations over arms supplies to Kiev and accused the west of trying to “tear Ukraine away from Russia”.
As fierce fighting on the ground continues, diplomatic negotiations now enter a key period, with Merkel travelling to Washington early next week, after her Kiev and Moscow trips, to meet Barack Obama.
Poroshenko has made a number of appeals for the west to supply Ukraine with weapons. On Wednesday, Ukraine’s foreign minister, Pavlo Klimkin, said his country has “enough Kalashnikovs” but has a desperate need for modern communications, radar and otherelectronic equipment to enable it to engage in modern warfare.
The international community remains deeply divided on arming Ukraine. Merkel has said Germany will not provide arms, and while one school of thought suggests that increasing the costs of fighting to Putin will force him to back down, others fear that the west arming Ukraine would only up the stakes and lead to a proxy war between Russia and the west.
A ceasefire signed in Minsk in September froze the frontlines at their positions at the time, but never held. In Kiev, there is a growing sense among many of the political establishment that the rebel-held areas of the east may be lost for some time, and privately, many express a willingness to accept a “frozen conflict” situation where Moscow would have to fund the rebel territories it has helped create.
But with a recent rebel offensive looking to take over the railway junction of Debaltseve and attacks on the key port city of Mariupol, the fear is that the rebels will want even more land than they already have.
The flurry of diplomacy comes as Nato prepares to announce details of a “rapid reaction” force of about 5,000 troops that will be deployed to eastern Europe. Britain’s Ministry of Defence confirmed on Thursday that the UK will contribute up to 1,000 troops to the force and will deploy four RAF Typhoon jets for policing the air above the Baltic states.
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